The Uncertainty of Certainty
Benjamin Franklin notably wrote, “nothing is certain except death and taxes.” When I entered the world of commerce in the 1970s, Sears & Roebuck and Montgomery Wards were the two dominant retailers in America. K-Mart was rising in smaller cities, but no one thought it would topple Sears and Wards. Walmart and Target were just getting started. In those days, we (my peers and I) were absolutely certain the retail giants of the day were unbeatable. So how did that turn out? In my efforts to understand business leaders over the years, this issue of “certainty” seemed to always be lurking. Whether successful or not, leaders needed to appear certain. One thing I was certain of as a budding young capitalist was that a business needed to grow, and grow at double-digit rates, to succeed and survive. I was certain that growth was not only necessary for success but was itself the primary objective of a business. Turns out, I’m no longer certain I was right. The captain of the HMS Titanic was ...